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Budgeting & Forecasting

Zero-based budgeting, rolling forecasts, variance analysis, scenario planning, and budget management

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Budgeting & Forecasting#

Create and manage effective budgets and financial forecasts.

Budgeting Approaches#

ApproachMethodBest For
IncrementalLast year + X%Stable organizations
Zero-basedBuild from scratch each periodCost optimization
Activity-basedCost per unit of activityManufacturing, services
RollingContinuous 12-month outlookFast-changing environments

Zero-Based Budgeting Steps#

  1. Identify all activities and their costs
  2. Evaluate each: does it create value?
  3. Rank by priority/cost ratio
  4. Fund top priorities within budget constraints
  5. Cut or optimize low-value activities

Forecasting#

Rolling Forecast Model#

# Structure
- Historical data (12-24 months)
- Current pipeline and commitments
- Leading indicators (traffic, leads, bookings)
- Economic assumptions
- Scenario overlays (best/base/worst)

Variance Analysis#

VarianceCauseAction
Revenue ↑Volume or price increaseSustain driver or reinvest
Revenue ↓Volume or price dropInvestigate root cause
Cost ↑Variable or fixed increaseOptimize or renegotiate
Cost ↓Efficiency or lower demandValidate sustainability

Scenario Planning#

  • Base case: Most likely outcome
  • Upside: +20% revenue, what would we invest in?
  • Downside: -20% revenue, what would we cut?
  • Each scenario has specific triggers and action plans
  • Review scenarios monthly against actuals

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